Will Home Affordability Improve in 2026? Here’s What Will Actually Change

January 11, 2026•3 min read

One of the Biggest Questions Right Now: Will Affordability Improve in 2026?

If you’re wondering whether buying a home will feel easier next year, you’re not alone. Affordability has been the number one friction point for buyers, especially since the inflation surge and the jump in mortgage rates.

The good news is that some pieces of the affordability puzzle are moving in a better direction. The important part is knowing which changes are likely to be gradual, and which changes can create real opportunity right now.

Here are the three biggest drivers I’m watching as we move through 2026.

1) Yes, Wages Are Rising, But Catching Up Takes Time

Wage growth has been steady across many sectors. For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Cost Index showed wages and salaries up year over year (and real wages up modestly when adjusted for inflation). Bureau of Labor Statistics+1

But even with wage gains, affordability can still feel tight because home prices have remained elevated. Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies noted that the national median single-family home price reached about five times the median household income in 2024, a sign of stretched affordability. Joint Center for Housing Studies+1

And on a shorter, real-world time frame, ATTOM’s Q4 2025 Home Affordability Report highlighted how difficult this has remained across the country. It also quantified the gap between home price gains and wage gains since 2020. ATTOM+1

What this means: Affordability usually does not “reset” overnight. Even when wages trend up, it can take years for buyers to feel meaningful relief.

2) Mortgage Rates Could Offer Some Breathing Room, But Forecasts Point to Gradual Change

Mortgage rates are a major piece of monthly affordability. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.16% as of January 8, 2026. Freddie Mac+1

Many forecasts expect rates to ease over time. For example, Fannie Mae’s ESR Group projected rates ending 2026 below 6% (around 5.9%), which is helpful, but still a gradual move rather than a sudden drop. Fannie Mae

What this means: Waiting for a perfect rate can be a risky strategy if it costs you negotiating leverage or the right home. In many cases, the smarter approach is to focus on the full deal structure and keep refinance options in mind if rates improve later.

3) The Real Shift Buyers May Feel First: Negotiation Power

This is the part that can create opportunity sooner.

As inventory improves, sellers often become more flexible, and buyers can gain leverage through:

Price reductions
Closing cost credits
Repairs or allowances
Concessions that change the monthly payment impact

Realtor.com’s 2026 Housing Forecast expects modest improvement in buyer bargaining power as inventory and affordability inch higher. Realt or +1
Realtor.com’s weekly trends coverage has also pointed to growing listings supporting more negotiation in certain markets. Realtor

What this means: Affordability is not just the number on the listing. It is the structure of the deal, and informed buyers tend to win the best terms.

Bottom Line: Will 2026 Make Buying Easier?

The real answer is: it depends on how you approach it.

If you go in hoping for one big change, like a massive rate drop, you might be waiting longer than you want. But if you approach 2026 with a strategy, strong guidance, and clear numbers, you may be surprised by what is possible right now.

If you want to run a quick scenario, DM me. No pressure, just real numbers based on today’s market.

Kellyn Bowden

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